ETF Inflows Show Cooling Momentum
XRP has seen six consecutive weeks of spot ETF inflows, but the trend underneath tells a different story. The cumulative net inflows have crossed $1.01 billion, which sounds impressive on paper. But when you look closer, the momentum has clearly cooled.
The strongest demand came early in November, with weeks seeing over $200 million in net inflows. That initial surge peaked again in early December. Since then, things have slowed considerably. The week of December 11 dropped to $93.57 million, and the most recent week added just $19.44 million.
So while the headline says “six weeks of inflows,” the reality is that ETF demand is still positive but no longer accelerating. This cooling helps explain why XRP price hasn’t followed the earlier inflow strength higher. It’s not that the inflows aren’t there—they are—but they’re not growing at the same pace.
On-Chain Signals Paint Mixed Picture
If ETF demand were cooling but on-chain holders were stepping in aggressively, the price could still stabilize. That hasn’t fully happened, and the on-chain data shows why.
One concerning signal comes from the percent of XRP supply last active more than one year ago. This metric has jumped from 48.75% on December 2 to 51.00%, reaching its highest level in about a month. When older coins start moving, it often means long-held supply is becoming active. That can add sell pressure even without panic selling.
At the same time, another long-term holder group is behaving differently. The Hodler net position change metric for wallets holding XRP longer than 155 days shows selling pressure easing. Net outflows peaked around 216.86 million XRP on December 11, then declined to about 154.57 million XRP by December 16. That’s a reduction of roughly 29% in net selling.
This creates a mixed picture. Some long-term supply is waking up, which is bearish. But some of those holders are selling less, which has helped XRP avoid a sharp breakdown—at least for now. I think one theory could be that the coin movement has happened, and these holders are waiting to sell into price bounces.
Price Action Reflects the Balance
The XRP price is trading inside a falling wedge and remains stuck in the middle of its recent range. It’s up about 2.3% over the past 24 hours, but the bigger picture remains weak. The token is still down roughly 14% over the past month and about 8.5% over the last seven days.
For bulls, the level that matters is $2.28. A daily close above it would break the wedge and imply roughly a 19% upside from current levels. That would shift momentum back toward buyers.
Downside risk feels more immediate, though. If XRP loses $1.74, the 0.618 Fibonacci level, the chart opens toward $1.59. There’s a deeper extension near $1.41 if broader market weakness continues.
Right now, ETF inflows alone aren’t enough. With demand cooling and on-chain signals split, XRP price remains stuck between support holding and sellers slowly regaining control. Unless the Hodler net position change metric flips green—showing net buying—the XRP price bounces might not hold.
It’s a delicate balance, and the market seems to be waiting for clearer signals one way or the other.
