Bitcoin held above $77,500 during Asian morning trading on Thursday, up roughly 1.5% in 24 hours. Prices slipped to $76,400 late Wednesday before recovering. Traders are now weighing the next Federal Reserve move, with markets pricing about 66% odds of a rate hike at the September meeting.
The broader crypto market was mixed. XRP led the majors while ether lagged the pack.
XRP leads while ether lags
XRP traded near $1.36, up almost 3%. BNB added roughly 2% and sat just under $692. Solana gained around 2% and stayed above the $100 mark. Tron rose about 1% to roughly 33 cents. Hyperliquid’s HYPE was flat just above $82. Ether, by comparison, remained below $2,400.
The weekly picture is less encouraging. Ether is down almost 4% over seven days. Tron is off about 3%, XRP roughly 3%, and bitcoin around 1%. Only Zcash at $817 and HYPE are still holding weekly gains among the majors.
Bitcoin holding near a key cost basis
Bitfinex analysts noted that the average cost basis for every active investor on the bitcoin network is pegged at $76,350. Bitcoin came within $50 of that level before buyers stepped in. That price area has absorbed sellers who bought during February and March all week. Many of those holders exited at breakeven rather than at a loss.
Still, the analysts warned of a possible pullback in the coming weeks. They pointed to seasonality, noting that September has historically been weak for bitcoin, with an average return of minus 2.95% since 2013. They added that if a correction happens within the month, the longer-term outlook still favors continuation higher on the higher timeframes.
Bonds and oil are moving against crypto
Bitcoin held its ground even as the bond market shifted sharply. Renewed U.S. strikes near the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude prices higher and revived inflation concerns. The ten-year Treasury yield closed just above 4.8%, its highest since 2023. The dollar index stayed just under 100.
Equities absorbed the macro pressure. The S&P 500 closed at 7,646 and the Dow gained about 277 points. Gold settled near $4,418.
Spot flows remain uneven
The recovery has not been fully confirmed by spot demand. Labelled entities sent roughly 3,700 bitcoin to exchanges over the past week. Spot bitcoin ETFs lost around $236 million. Stablecoin supply went flat near $310 billion after growing daily through August.
As Nicolai Søndergaard, senior research analyst at Nansen, put it, that combination suggests the recovery still lacks consistent spot-flow confirmation. The options market is also positioned around the next major data point. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report is likely to settle the September Fed meeting. Downside protection sits between $68,000 and $75,000, covering the window from payrolls into the CPI release on Sept. 11, 2026. Upside exposure remains in calls above the current range, while perpetual leverage is well below its August peak.
This leaves bitcoin in a cautious spot. The support level has held for now, but the macro picture is less friendly than it was a few weeks ago. Whether the next move comes after payrolls or the CPI print, traders seem aware that confirmation is still missing.
