ETF Inflows Show Cooling Momentum
I’ve been watching the XRP situation closely, and something interesting is happening. The token has seen six straight weeks of spot ETF inflows, which sounds impressive on paper. But when you look closer, the momentum has clearly cooled off.
It started strong in mid-November with over $240 million in net inflows during the first week. That pattern continued through early December, with weekly numbers staying above $200 million. But then things changed. The week of December 11 dropped to about $93 million, and the most recent week added just $19 million.
So we have this situation where the headline says “six weeks of inflows” but the actual trend underneath is slowing down. ETF demand is still positive, I think, but it’s not accelerating anymore. That cooling helps explain why the XRP price hasn’t followed those earlier inflow numbers higher.
On-Chain Data Reveals Diverging Holder Behavior
What’s really interesting is what’s happening on-chain. If ETF demand were cooling but regular holders were stepping in aggressively, the price could still stabilize. But that hasn’t fully happened.
One concerning signal I noticed is the percentage of XRP supply last active more than a year ago. That metric jumped from 48.75% on December 2 to 51.00% recently. When older coins start moving, it often means long-held supply is becoming active. That can add sell pressure even without panic selling.
At the same time, another group of long-term holders is behaving differently. The Hodler net position change metric for wallets holding XRP longer than 155 days shows selling pressure easing. Net outflows peaked around 216.86 million XRP on December 11, then declined to about 154.57 million XRP by December 16. That’s a reduction of roughly 29% in net selling.
This creates a mixed picture. Some long-term supply is waking up, which is bearish. But some of those holders are selling less, which has helped the XRP price avoid a sharp breakdown so far. However, one theory could be that the coin movement has happened, and these holders are waiting to sell into price bounces.
Price Action Reflects the Balance
The price action itself tells the story. XRP is trading inside a falling wedge pattern and remains stuck in the middle of its recent range. Over the past 24 hours, it’s up about 2.3%, but the bigger picture remains weak. The token is still down roughly 14% over the past month and about 8.5% over the last seven days.
For bulls, the level that matters is $2.28. A daily close above that would break the wedge pattern and imply roughly a 19% upside from current levels. That would shift momentum back toward buyers.
Downside risk feels more immediate though. If XRP loses $1.74, the 0.618 Fibonacci level, the chart opens toward $1.59. There’s a deeper extension near $1.41 if broader market weakness continues.
Right now, ETF inflows alone aren’t enough. With demand cooling and on-chain signals split, XRP price remains stuck between support holding and sellers slowly regaining control. Unless the Hodler net position change metric flips to net buying, any price bounces might not hold.
It’s a waiting game at this point. The data shows conflicting signals, and the price action reflects that uncertainty. Perhaps we’ll need clearer direction from either the ETF flows or on-chain behavior before we see a meaningful move.
